Atlético Acreano 1–1 Globo: Result & Stats

Atlético Acreano

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Globo

Rafael Barros 51'

Romarinho 66'

7/22/2018

Serie C · Round 15Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes (Rio Branco, Acre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Acreano49%

×Draw27%

Globo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AcreanoExpected goals in this matchGlobo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.91

Atlético Acreano

1.41

Globo

0.91

Atlético Acreano creates 55% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

1.47

creates per match

0.71

1.11

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Atlético Acreano

1.47

Globo

0.71

allows per match

Atlético Acreano

1.11

Globo

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Globo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Acreano ↓

Globo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Acreano or draw

76%

Atlético Acreano or Globo

73%

Draw or Globo

51%

Winning margin

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

24%

Globo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

76%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

41%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

17%

Globo 1+ goals

60%

Globo 2+ goals

23%

Globo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

67%

Globo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Acreano at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Globo away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Acreano attack 1.47 + Globo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Globo attack 0.71 + Atlético Acreano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Acreano scores more

49%

level

27%

Globo scores more

24%

Atlético Acreano at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Acreano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

Rafael Barros

66'

Romarinho

71'

Alex Sandro← Jean Natal

85'

Igor Leandro← Araújo Jordão

88'

Sidney da Silva← Erick

90+3'

Rafael Tanque← Neto

Atlético

Globo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Alvaro

85'▲Igor Leandro←▼Araújo Jordão

90+3'▲Rafael Tanque←▼Neto

Atlético Acreano substitutes

LeandroTanqueEdivandroFerroAlfredoAncelmoGeovaniHenriqueWillardReginaldoTragodaraWilson

Manager: Higor César

71'▲Alex Sandro←▼Jean Natal

88'▲Sidney da Silva←▼Erick

Globo substitutes

SandroSilvaAlexandreCosmeGedsonJamersonVictorMateuzinhoMizaelNeguebaVangerPablo