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Glentoran BU W vs Lisburn Ladies W — Premiership Women 2024

Glentoran BU W
Glentoran BU W
FT
4 – 1
Lisburn Ladies W
Lisburn Ladies W
8/31/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 13Blanchflower Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Glentoran BU W89%
×Draw7%
Lisburn Ladies W4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glentoran BU W
4.05
Lisburn Ladies W
0.82

Glentoran BU W creates 394% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

creates per match

Glentoran BU W
4.71
Lisburn Ladies W
1.16

allows per match

Glentoran BU W
0.48
Lisburn Ladies W
3.40

finishing

Glentoran BU W+0.00on par
Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glentoran BU W ↓

Lisburn Ladies W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Glentoran BU W or draw
96%
Glentoran BU W or Lisburn Ladies W
93%
Draw or Lisburn Ladies W
11%

Winning margin

Glentoran BU W wins by 2+
75%
Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Glentoran BU W 1+ goals
98%
Glentoran BU W 2+ goals
90%
Glentoran BU W 3+ goals
74%
Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals
56%
Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals
20%
Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)
96%
Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glentoran BU W at home — creates 4.71, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Lisburn Ladies W away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glentoran BU W attack 4.71 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 4.05

Lisburn Ladies W attack 1.16 + Glentoran BU W defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Glentoran BU W scores more
89%
level
7%
Lisburn Ladies W scores more
4%

Glentoran BU W at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Glentoran BU W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Glentoran BU W 4–1 Lisburn Ladies W

Glentoran BU W beat Lisburn Ladies W 4-1 in Premiership Women on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Blanchflower Stadium in Belfast.