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Lisburn Ladies W vs Glentoran BU W — Premiership Women 2026

Lisburn Ladies W
Lisburn Ladies W
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Glentoran BU W
Glentoran BU W
M. Shannon 89'
A. Kerr 80', 68'
R. Rogan 56'
J. Foy 45'
K. Weir 39', 36'
5/9/2025Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 1The Bluebell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lisburn Ladies W7%
×Draw11%
Glentoran BU W82%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lisburn Ladies W
0.92
Glentoran BU W
3.34

Glentoran BU W creates 263% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lisburn Ladies W
0.53
Glentoran BU W
4.15

allows per match

Lisburn Ladies W
2.53
Glentoran BU W
1.31

finishing

Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par
Glentoran BU W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Ladies W ↓

Glentoran BU W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–28%
0–39%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Lisburn Ladies W or draw
18%
Lisburn Ladies W or Glentoran BU W
89%
Draw or Glentoran BU W
93%

Winning margin

Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+
2%
Glentoran BU W wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals
60%
Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals
23%
Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals
7%
Glentoran BU W 1+ goals
96%
Glentoran BU W 2+ goals
84%
Glentoran BU W 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)
8%
Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Ladies W at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Glentoran BU W away — creates 4.15, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Ladies W attack 0.53 + Glentoran BU W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.92

Glentoran BU W attack 4.15 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 3.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Lisburn Ladies W scores more
7%
level
11%
Glentoran BU W scores more
82%

Glentoran BU W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Glentoran BU W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
K. Weir
39'
K. Weir
45'
J. Foy
56'
R. Rogan
68'
A. Kerr
80'
A. Kerr
89'
M. Shannon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lisburn Ladies W vs Glentoran BU W

Glentoran BU W beat Lisburn Ladies W 6-1 in Premiership Women on May 9, 2025.

Goals: K. Weir (36', 39'), J. Foy (45'), R. Rogan (56'), A. Kerr (68', 80'), M. Shannon (89').

The match was played at The Bluebell Stadium in Lisburn.