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Glentoran BU W vs Derry City W — Premiership Women 2026

Glentoran BU W
Glentoran BU W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Derry City W
Derry City W
R. Rogan 60', 34'
J. Foy 51'
K. Deery 38' (OG)
6/13/2025Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 5Blanchflower Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Glentoran BU W83%
×Draw11%
Derry City W7%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glentoran BU W
3.42
Derry City W
0.92

Glentoran BU W creates 272% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Glentoran BU W
3.75
Derry City W
1.40

allows per match

Glentoran BU W
0.44
Derry City W
3.10

finishing

Glentoran BU W+0.00on par
Derry City W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glentoran BU W ↓

Derry City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Glentoran BU W or draw
93%
Glentoran BU W or Derry City W
89%
Draw or Derry City W
17%

Winning margin

Glentoran BU W wins by 2+
65%
Derry City W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Glentoran BU W 1+ goals
97%
Glentoran BU W 2+ goals
85%
Glentoran BU W 3+ goals
64%
Derry City W 1+ goals
60%
Derry City W 2+ goals
23%
Derry City W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)
93%
Derry City W (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glentoran BU W at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

Derry City W away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glentoran BU W attack 3.75 + Derry City W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 3.42

Derry City W attack 1.40 + Glentoran BU W defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Glentoran BU W scores more
83%
level
11%
Derry City W scores more
7%

Glentoran BU W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Glentoran BU W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
R. Rogan
38'
K. DeeryOwn goal
51'
J. Foy
60'
R. Rogan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Glentoran BU W vs Derry City W

Glentoran BU W beat Derry City W 4-0 in Premiership Women on June 13, 2025.

Goals: R. Rogan (34', 60'), K. Deery (38' o.g.), J. Foy (51').

The match was played at Blanchflower Stadium in Belfast.