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Derry City W vs Glentoran BU W — Premiership Women 2026

Derry City W
Derry City W
FT
1 – 6
Glentoran BU W
Glentoran BU W
10/2/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 14The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Derry City W10%
×Draw13%
Glentoran BU W77%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City W
1.23
Glentoran BU W
3.40

Glentoran BU W creates 176% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Derry City W
1.14
Glentoran BU W
4.15

allows per match

Derry City W
2.64
Glentoran BU W
1.31

finishing

Derry City W+0.00on par
Glentoran BU W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City W ↓

Glentoran BU W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Derry City W or draw
23%
Derry City W or Glentoran BU W
87%
Draw or Glentoran BU W
90%

Winning margin

Derry City W wins by 2+
4%
Glentoran BU W wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Derry City W 1+ goals
71%
Derry City W 2+ goals
35%
Derry City W 3+ goals
13%
Glentoran BU W 1+ goals
96%
Glentoran BU W 2+ goals
84%
Glentoran BU W 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Derry City W (draw refunded)
12%
Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.64 · 14 matches

Glentoran BU W away — creates 4.15, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City W attack 1.14 + Glentoran BU W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Glentoran BU W attack 4.15 + Derry City W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 3.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Derry City W scores more
10%
level
13%
Glentoran BU W scores more
77%

Glentoran BU W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Glentoran BU W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Derry City W 1–6 Glentoran BU W

Glentoran BU W beat Derry City W 6-1 in Premiership Women on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Londonderry.