GKS Katowice W 1–2 Czarni Sosnowiec W

GKS Katowice W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Czarni Sosnowiec W

9/22/2025

Ekstraliga Women · Round 6Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

GKS Katowice W41%

×Draw22%

Czarni Sosnowiec W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GKS Katowice WExpected goals in this matchCzarni Sosnowiec W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.77

GKS Katowice W

1.86

Czarni Sosnowiec W

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

2.88

creates per match

2.79

0.75

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

GKS Katowice W

2.88

Czarni Sosnowiec W

2.79

allows per match

GKS Katowice W

0.75

Czarni Sosnowiec W

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GKS Katowice W+0.00on par

Czarni Sosnowiec W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice W ↓

Czarni Sosnowiec W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

GKS Katowice W or draw

63%

GKS Katowice W or Czarni Sosnowiec W

78%

Draw or Czarni Sosnowiec W

59%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice W wins by 2+

22%

Czarni Sosnowiec W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

GKS Katowice W 1+ goals

84%

GKS Katowice W 2+ goals

55%

GKS Katowice W 3+ goals

28%

Czarni Sosnowiec W 1+ goals

83%

Czarni Sosnowiec W 2+ goals

53%

Czarni Sosnowiec W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice W (draw refunded)

52%

Czarni Sosnowiec W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Czarni Sosnowiec W away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice W attack 2.88 + Czarni Sosnowiec W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.86

Czarni Sosnowiec W attack 2.79 + GKS Katowice W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

GKS Katowice W scores more

41%

level

22%

Czarni Sosnowiec W scores more

37%

GKS Katowice W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "GKS Katowice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff