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Czarni Sosnowiec W vs GKS Katowice W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Czarni Sosnowiec W
Czarni Sosnowiec W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
GKS Katowice W
GKS Katowice W
3/2/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 12Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Czarni Sosnowiec W49%
×Draw21%
GKS Katowice W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czarni Sosnowiec W
2.15
GKS Katowice W
1.67

Czarni Sosnowiec W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Czarni Sosnowiec W
3.47
GKS Katowice W
2.42

allows per match

Czarni Sosnowiec W
0.91
GKS Katowice W
0.82

finishing

Czarni Sosnowiec W+0.00on par
GKS Katowice W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Sosnowiec W ↓

GKS Katowice W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Czarni Sosnowiec W or draw
70%
Czarni Sosnowiec W or GKS Katowice W
79%
Draw or GKS Katowice W
51%

Winning margin

Czarni Sosnowiec W wins by 2+
29%
GKS Katowice W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Czarni Sosnowiec W 1+ goals
88%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 2+ goals
63%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 3+ goals
36%
GKS Katowice W 1+ goals
81%
GKS Katowice W 2+ goals
50%
GKS Katowice W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Czarni Sosnowiec W (draw refunded)
62%
GKS Katowice W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Sosnowiec W at home — creates 3.47, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

GKS Katowice W away — creates 2.42, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Sosnowiec W attack 3.47 + GKS Katowice W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 2.15

GKS Katowice W attack 2.42 + Czarni Sosnowiec W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Czarni Sosnowiec W scores more
49%
level
21%
GKS Katowice W scores more
30%

Czarni Sosnowiec W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Czarni Sosnowiec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Czarni Sosnowiec W 3–0 GKS Katowice W

Czarni Sosnowiec W beat GKS Katowice W 3-0 in Ekstraliga Women on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.