GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa — Ekstraklasa 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 17+ matches
GKS Katowice31%
Raków Częstochowa45%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Raków Częstochowa creates 23% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
GKS Katowice ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.80 · 19 matches
Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
GKS Katowice attack 1.41 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37
Raków Częstochowa attack 1.57 + GKS Katowice defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Raków Częstochowa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Lech Poznan
Gornik Zabrze
JagielloniaRaków CzęstochowaGKS Katowice
Legia Warszawa
Zaglebie Lubin
Wisla Plock
Pogon Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
Korona Kielce
Motor Lublin
Cracovia Krakow
Widzew Łódź
Piast Gliwice
Lechia Gdansk
Arka Gdynia
NiecieczaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
GKS Katowice host Raków Częstochowa on Saturday, 3 August 2024 at 12:45. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2025/2026 season.
Ekstraklasa: GKS Katowice 0–1 Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa beat GKS Katowice 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on August 3, 2024.
Goals: Jean Carlos (29').
The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.