GKS Katowice 1–2 Bytovia Bytów: Result & Stats

GKS Katowice

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bytovia Bytów

8/10/2019

II Liga - East · Round 3Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

GKS Katowice55%

×Draw22%

Bytovia Bytów23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GKS KatowiceExpected goals in this matchBytovia Bytów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.15

GKS Katowice

1.92

Bytovia Bytów

1.15

GKS Katowice creates 67% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 35 away

1.97

creates per match

1.17

1.14

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

GKS Katowice

1.97

Bytovia Bytów

1.17

allows per match

GKS Katowice

1.14

Bytovia Bytów

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Bytovia Bytów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw

77%

GKS Katowice or Bytovia Bytów

78%

Draw or Bytovia Bytów

45%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

32%

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

85%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

57%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

30%

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

68%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

32%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

71%

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.97 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.92

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + GKS Katowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

GKS Katowice scores more

55%

level

22%

Bytovia Bytów scores more

23%

GKS Katowice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff