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Bytovia Bytów vs GKS Katowice — II Liga - East 2019

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
12/2/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 16Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bytovia Bytów36%
×Draw25%
GKS Katowice39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.39
GKS Katowice
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.57
GKS Katowice
1.51

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.37
GKS Katowice
1.20

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

GKS Katowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
61%
Bytovia Bytów or GKS Katowice
75%
Draw or GKS Katowice
64%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
17%
GKS Katowice wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
75%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
40%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
16%
GKS Katowice 1+ goals
76%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
42%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
48%
GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + GKS Katowice defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

GKS Katowice attack 1.51 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
36%
level
25%
GKS Katowice scores more
39%

GKS Katowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Bytovia Bytów 1–2 GKS Katowice

GKS Katowice beat Bytovia Bytów 2-1 in II Liga - East on December 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Bytów.