Girona 0–1 Atletico Madrid: Result & Stats

Girona

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Madrid

Álvaro Morata 90+1'

3/13/2023

La Liga · Round 25Estadi Municipal de Montilivi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Girona40%

×Draw26%

Atletico Madrid34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GironaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.28

Girona

1.39

Atletico Madrid

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 38 away

1.39

creates per match

1.16

1.40

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Girona

1.39

Atletico Madrid

1.16

allows per match

Girona

1.40

Atletico Madrid

1.39

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Girona-0.05on par

Atletico Madrid+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona ↓

Atletico Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Girona or draw

66%

Girona or Atletico Madrid

74%

Draw or Atletico Madrid

60%

Winning margin

Girona wins by 2+

18%

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Girona 1+ goals

75%

Girona 2+ goals

40%

Girona 3+ goals

16%

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

72%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

37%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Girona (draw refunded)

53%

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Girona at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Atletico Madrid away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Girona attack 1.39 + Atletico Madrid defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Atletico Madrid attack 1.16 + Girona defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Girona scores more

40%

level

26%

Atletico Madrid scores more

34%

Girona at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Girona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Oblak

Atletico Madrid · G

8.0

Match Events

51'

Mario HermosoPenalty cancelled

57'

Marcos Llorente

62'

Á. Correa← T. Lemar

62'

Álvaro Morata← M. Depay

62'

R. De Paul← Marcos Llorente

64'

Valery← Borja García

66'

Stefan Savić

75'

Iván Martín← Oriol Romeu

75'

C. Stuani← V. Castellanos

76'

Saúl← Y. Carrasco

81'

A. Witsel← Koke

87'

B. Espinosa← Aleix García

87'

Toni Villa← V. Tsygankov

90+12'

Paulo Gazzaniga

90+11'

Cristhian Stuani

90+8'

Rodrigo de Paul

90+4'

Álvaro MorataGoal confirmed

90+1'

Álvaro Morata

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GironaAtletico

Overview

50%Possession50%

6Total Shots14

0.33Expected Goals (xG)2.09

1Corners3

6Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots14

4On Target4

1Off Target7

1Blocked3

3Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

529Total Passes537

464Accurate Passes458

88%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides3