Atletico Madrid 2–1 Girona: Result & Stats

Atletico Madrid

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Girona

Á. Correa 48', 5'

Rodrigo Riquelme 66'

10/8/2022

La Liga · Round 8Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Atletico Madrid54%

×Draw23%

Girona22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico MadridExpected goals in this matchGirona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.05

Atletico Madrid

1.78

Girona

1.05

Atletico Madrid creates 70% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 39 away

2.01

creates per match

1.23

0.88

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Atletico Madrid

2.01

Girona

1.23

allows per match

Atletico Madrid

0.88

Girona

1.56

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Madrid+0.22scores more

Girona-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid ↓

Girona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid or draw

78%

Atletico Madrid or Girona

77%

Draw or Girona

46%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

30%

Girona wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

83%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

53%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

26%

Girona 1+ goals

65%

Girona 2+ goals

28%

Girona 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

71%

Girona (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Girona away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid attack 2.01 + Girona defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Girona attack 1.23 + Atletico Madrid defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atletico Madrid scores more

54%

level

23%

Girona scores more

22%

Atletico Madrid at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atletico Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Á. Correa

Atletico Madrid · M

8.6

Match Events

5'

Á. Correa↳ A. Griezmann

45+1'

José María Giménez

46'

Yan Couto← Miguel Gutiérrez

46'

Valery← Arnau Martínez

48'

Á. Correa

49'

Matheus Cunha

55'

Javier Hernández

64'

C. Stuani← Y. Herrera

65'

T. Lemar← A. Griezmann

65'

Saúl← Y. Carrasco

65'

Álvaro Morata← Matheus Cunha

66'

Rodrigo Riquelme↳ Valery

74'

G. Kondogbia← A. Witsel

74'

João Félix← Á. Correa

81'

Toni Villa← Rodrigo Riquelme

84'

Ramón Terrats← Javi Hernández

89'

Stefan Savić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoGirona

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots11

8Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots11

7On Target4

2Off Target5

4Blocked2

11Inside Box4

2Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

505Total Passes608

433Accurate Passes541

86%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2

La Liga: Atletico Madrid 2–1 Girona

Atletico Madrid beat Girona 2-1 in La Liga on October 8, 2022.

Goals: Á. Correa (5', 48'), Rodrigo Riquelme (66').

Girona controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano in Madrid.

Atletico Madrid vs Girona — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

La Liga: Atletico Madrid 2–1 Girona