Girona II 4–2 Rapitenca: Result & Stats

Girona II

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Rapitenca

Kim Min-Su 90+3'

Carles Garrido 66'

Miguel Sánchez 40'

Oriol Comas 5'

Marc Barragán 76'

Gerard Vergé 12'

5/5/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 33Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Girona II54%

×Draw24%

Rapitenca22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Girona IIExpected goals in this matchRapitenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.03

Girona II

1.75

Rapitenca

1.03

Girona II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 32 away

1.72

creates per match

0.94

1.13

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Girona II

1.72

Rapitenca

0.94

allows per match

Girona II

1.13

Rapitenca

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

Rapitenca →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Girona II or draw

78%

Girona II or Rapitenca

76%

Draw or Rapitenca

46%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+

30%

Rapitenca wins by 2+

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals

83%

Girona II 2+ goals

52%

Girona II 3+ goals

25%

Rapitenca 1+ goals

64%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

28%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)

71%

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

Rapitenca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + Rapitenca defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rapitenca attack 0.94 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Girona II scores more

54%

level

24%

Rapitenca scores more

22%

Girona II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Oriol Comas

12'

Gerard Vergé

40'

Miguel Sánchez

58'

Marc Barragán← Adam Hafidh

64'

Mario Hernández← Moussa Bandeh

64'

Edgar Losada← Alex Samper

66'

Carles Garrido

68'

Enric García← Miguel Sánchez

76'

Marc Barragán

78'

Kim Min-Su← Carles Garrido

78'

W. Suzuki← Javi Sarasa

84'

Marc Aznar← Jastin García

84'

Iker Adell← Álex Forés

90+3'

Kim Min-Su

Girona

Rapitenca

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Sánchez

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergi Mora

68'▲Enric García←▼Miguel Sánchez

78'▲Kim Min-Su←▼Carles Garrido

78'▲W. Suzuki←▼Javi Sarasa

84'▲Marc Aznar←▼Jastin García

Girona II substitutes

GarcíaMin-SuSuzukiAznar

58'▲Marc Barragán←▼Adam Hafidh

64'▲Mario Hernández←▼Moussa Bandeh

64'▲Edgar Losada←▼Alex Samper

84'▲Iker Adell←▼Álex Forés

Rapitenca substitutes

BarragánHernándezLosadaAdell

Match Recap: Girona II vs Rapitenca

Girona II beat Rapitenca 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 5, 2024.

Goals: Oriol Comas (5'), Gerard Vergé (12'), Miguel Sánchez (40'), Carles Garrido (66'), Marc Barragán (76'), Kim Min-Su (90+3').

The match was played at Campo Municipal Riudarenes in Riudarenes.

Girona II vs Rapitenca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Girona II vs Rapitenca