Girona II 1–0 Rapitenca: Result & Stats

Girona II

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rapitenca

S. Katsushima 68'

3/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 24Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Girona II54%

×Draw24%

Rapitenca22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Girona IIExpected goals in this matchRapitenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.03

Girona II

1.75

Rapitenca

1.03

Girona II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 32 away

1.72

creates per match

0.94

1.13

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Girona II

1.72

Rapitenca

0.94

allows per match

Girona II

1.13

Rapitenca

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

Rapitenca →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Girona II or draw

78%

Girona II or Rapitenca

76%

Draw or Rapitenca

46%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+

30%

Rapitenca wins by 2+

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals

83%

Girona II 2+ goals

52%

Girona II 3+ goals

25%

Rapitenca 1+ goals

64%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

28%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)

71%

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

Rapitenca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + Rapitenca defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rapitenca attack 0.94 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Girona II scores more

54%

level

24%

Rapitenca scores more

22%

Girona II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

Iker Almena← Manuel Martinez

61'

Marc Doménech← Daniel Torices

67'

Antonino← Minsu Kim

68'

S. Katsushima

76'

Peke← Daniel Ekedo

76'

Oscar Micula← Eric Alarcón

85'

Luis Morcillo← S. Katsushima

Girona

Rapitenca

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Katsushim

Almansa

▼

Kim

Manager: Axel Vizuete

61'▲Iker Almena←▼Manuel Martinez

61'▲Marc Doménech←▼Daniel Torices

67'▲Antonino←▼Minsu Kim

85'▲Luis Morcillo←▼S. Katsushima

Girona II substitutes

AlmenaDoménechAntoninoMorcillo

Manager: Josep Aliau

76'▲Peke←▼Daniel Ekedo

76'▲Oscar Micula←▼Eric Alarcón

Rapitenca substitutes

PekeMicula

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Girona II 1–0 Rapitenca

Girona II beat Rapitenca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 12, 2023.

Goals: S. Katsushima (68').

The match was played at Campo Municipal Riudarenes in Riudarenes.

Girona II vs Rapitenca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Girona II 1–0 Rapitenca