Girona II 3–0 Castelldefels: Result & Stats

Girona II

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Castelldefels

Iker Almena 64'

Sergi Solans 62', 46'

11/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 11Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Girona II46%

×Draw26%

Castelldefels28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Girona IIExpected goals in this matchCastelldefels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

Girona II

1.48

Castelldefels

1.10

Girona II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 74 away

1.72

creates per match

1.07

1.13

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Girona II

1.72

Castelldefels

1.07

allows per match

Girona II

1.13

Castelldefels

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

Castelldefels →

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Girona II or draw

72%

Girona II or Castelldefels

74%

Draw or Castelldefels

54%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+

23%

Castelldefels wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals

77%

Girona II 2+ goals

43%

Girona II 3+ goals

19%

Castelldefels 1+ goals

67%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

30%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)

62%

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Girona II scores more

46%

level

26%

Castelldefels scores more

28%

Girona II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Sergi Solans

55'

Carlos Cano← Mario Gerboles

62'

Sergi Solans

63'

Blasco← Uri Escabrós

64'

Iker Almena

70'

Luka Managadze← Miguel Sánchez

75'

W. Suzuki← Enric García

80'

Pablo Franco← Xavier Finot

80'

Álex Alba← Ramon Marimon

80'

Juanito← Dani Sánchez

87'

Erik Quevedo← Kim Min-Su

87'

Javi Sarasa← Sergi Solans

Girona

Castelldefels

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Sergi Mora

70'▲Luka Managadze←▼Miguel Sánchez

75'▲W. Suzuki←▼Enric García

87'▲Erik Quevedo←▼Kim Min-Su

87'▲Javi Sarasa←▼Sergi Solans

Girona II substitutes

ManagadzeSuzukiQuevedoSarasa

Manager: Miki Carrillo

55'▲Carlos Cano←▼Mario Gerboles

63'▲Blasco←▼Uri Escabrós

80'▲Pablo Franco←▼Xavier Finot

80'▲Álex Alba←▼Ramon Marimon

80'▲Juanito←▼Dani Sánchez

Castelldefels substitutes

CanoBlascoFrancoAlbaJuanito

Match Recap: Girona II vs Castelldefels

Girona II beat Castelldefels 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 19, 2023.

Goals: Sergi Solans (46', 62'), Iker Almena (64').

The match was played at Campo Municipal Riudarenes in Riudarenes.

Girona II vs Castelldefels — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Girona II vs Castelldefels