Castelldefels 1–3 Girona II: Result & Stats

Castelldefels

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Girona II

Fran Orellana 13'

Dawda Camara 90+3'

Ricard Artero 51'

Pau Victor 20'

2/13/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 23Estadio Els Canyars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Castelldefels29%

×Draw29%

Girona II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastelldefelsExpected goals in this matchGirona II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.23

Castelldefels

0.97

Girona II

1.23

Girona II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 78 away

1.03

creates per match

1.23

1.24

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Castelldefels

1.03

Girona II

1.23

allows per match

Castelldefels

1.24

Girona II

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Girona II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castelldefels ↓

Girona II →

0–011%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Castelldefels or draw

58%

Castelldefels or Girona II

71%

Draw or Girona II

71%

Winning margin

Castelldefels wins by 2+

11%

Girona II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Castelldefels 1+ goals

62%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

25%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

Girona II 1+ goals

71%

Girona II 2+ goals

35%

Girona II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

41%

Girona II (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castelldefels at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

Girona II away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castelldefels attack 1.03 + Girona II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Girona II attack 1.23 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Castelldefels scores more

29%

level

29%

Girona II scores more

42%

Girona II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Fran Orellana

20'

Pau Victor

51'

Ricard Artero

59'

Nil Sauret← Sarkodie Dapaah

62'

Joel Coch← Manu González

62'

Kike Ramírez← Guillem Hernández

71'

Gabriel Martínez← Adrià Gené

78'

Kevin Díaz← Fran Orellana

79'

Loïc Williams← Ricard Artero

79'

Suleiman Camara← Pau Victor

85'

Genís Cargol← Juanito

85'

Luis Gaudioso← Carles Gallardo

90+3'

Dawda Camara

Castelldefels

Girona

⚽

▼

Victor

⚽

Camara

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Orellana

Manager: Miki Carrillo

62'▲Joel Coch←▼Manu González

62'▲Kike Ramírez←▼Guillem Hernández

78'▲Kevin Díaz←▼Fran Orellana

85'▲Genís Cargol←▼Juanito

85'▲Luis Gaudioso←▼Carles Gallardo

Castelldefels substitutes

CochRamírezDíazCargolGaudioso

Manager: Axel Vizuete

59'▲Nil Sauret←▼Sarkodie Dapaah

71'▲Gabriel Martínez←▼Adrià Gené

79'▲Loïc Williams←▼Ricard Artero

79'▲Suleiman Camara←▼Pau Victor

Girona II substitutes

SauretMartínezWilliamsCamara

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Castelldefels 1–3 Girona II

Girona II beat Castelldefels 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 13, 2022.

Goals: Fran Orellana (13'), Pau Victor (20'), Ricard Artero (51'), Dawda Camara (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Els Canyars in Castelldefels.

Castelldefels vs Girona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Castelldefels 1–3 Girona II