Giresunspor 3–1 Göztepe: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Giresunspor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Göztepe

Dodô 80' (pen)

V. Muriqi 51'

A. Solmaz 45'

E. Aygün 90+2'

2/14/2016

1. Lig · Round 21Giresun Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Giresunspor30%

×Draw29%

Göztepe41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GiresunsporExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.23

Giresunspor

1.00

Göztepe

1.23

Göztepe creates 23% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 44 away

1.07

creates per match

1.30

1.17

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Giresunspor

1.07

Göztepe

1.30

allows per match

Giresunspor

1.17

Göztepe

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Giresunspor+0.00on par

Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giresunspor ↓

Göztepe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Giresunspor or draw

59%

Giresunspor or Göztepe

71%

Draw or Göztepe

70%

Winning margin

Giresunspor wins by 2+

11%

Göztepe wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Giresunspor 1+ goals

63%

Giresunspor 2+ goals

26%

Giresunspor 3+ goals

8%

Göztepe 1+ goals

71%

Göztepe 2+ goals

35%

Göztepe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Giresunspor (draw refunded)

42%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giresunspor at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.17 · 72 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giresunspor attack 1.07 + Göztepe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Göztepe attack 1.30 + Giresunspor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Giresunspor scores more

30%

level

29%

Göztepe scores more

41%

Göztepe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

A. Solmaz

46'

Ö. İleri← Cleyton

51'

V. Muriqi

60'

E. Aygün← S. Özbayraktar

64'

H. Tchami-Ngangoue← Bruno Alves

68'

E. Coşkun← F. Özkan

76'

M. Aydın← L. George

80'

DodôPenalty

83'

İ. Odabaşı← A. Solmaz

90+2'

E. Aygün

Giresunspor

Göztepe

1

23

66

2

24

5

12

▼

Cleyton

19

Gosso

41

▼

George

77

Diarra

88

▼

27

93

16

28

57

63

▼

Özkan

25

⚽

Dodô

40

Kacar

7

⚽

▼

Solmaz

19

⚽

Muriqi

70

▼

Alves

Manager: E. Sözeri

64'▲H. Tchami-Ngangoue←▼Bruno Alves

68'▲E. Coşkun←▼F. Özkan

83'▲İ. Odabaşı←▼A. Solmaz

Giresunspor substitutes

21Tchami-Ngangoue26Coşkun35Odabaşı4Can9Ünsal17Şahin99Altın

Manager: M. Diyadin

46'▲Ö. İleri←▼Cleyton

60'▲E. Aygün←▼S. Özbayraktar

76'▲M. Aydın←▼L. George

Göztepe substitutes

26İleri7Aygün9Aydın8Barış10Vleminckx17Karadeniz33Öztürk