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Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Cayón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cayón
Cayón
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Campo Municipal Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega58%
×Draw22%
Cayón20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.92
Cayón
1.03

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 86% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
2.76
Cayón
1.46

allows per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.61
Cayón
1.08

finishing

Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par
Cayón+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Torrelavega ↓

Cayón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gimnástica Torrelavega or draw
80%
Gimnástica Torrelavega or Cayón
78%
Draw or Cayón
42%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
34%
Cayón wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
85%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
57%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
30%
Cayón 1+ goals
64%
Cayón 2+ goals
28%
Cayón 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
74%
Cayón (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Torrelavega at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.61 · 59 matches

Cayón away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 2.76 + Cayón defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.92

Cayón attack 1.46 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
58%
level
22%
Cayón scores more
20%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gimnástica Torrelavega 0 – 0 Cayón

Gimnástica Torrelavega and Cayón drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Santa Ana in Torrelavega.