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Cayón vs Gimnástica Torrelavega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Cayón
Cayón
CANC
00:00
Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 30Estadio Fernando Astobiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cayón46%
×Draw25%
Gimnástica Torrelavega28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cayón
1.54
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.14

Cayón creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 59 away

creates per match

Cayón
2.33
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.68

allows per match

Cayón
0.60
Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.76

finishing

Cayón+0.00on par
Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cayón ↓

Gimnástica Torrelavega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cayón or draw
72%
Cayón or Gimnástica Torrelavega
75%
Draw or Gimnástica Torrelavega
54%

Winning margin

Cayón wins by 2+
23%
Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cayón 1+ goals
79%
Cayón 2+ goals
45%
Cayón 3+ goals
20%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
68%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
32%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cayón (draw refunded)
62%
Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cayón at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cayón attack 2.33 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 1.68 + Cayón defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cayón scores more
46%
level
25%
Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
28%

Cayón at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cayón vs Gimnástica Torrelavega — Match Preview

Cayón face Gimnástica Torrelavega on March 22, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cayón host Gimnástica Torrelavega at Estadio Fernando Astobiza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.