Gimnástica Segoviana 1–1 Cultural Leonesa

Gimnástica Segoviana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cultural Leonesa

Abel Pascual 39'

Manu Justo 90'

3/16/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana37%

×Draw27%

Cultural Leonesa36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnástica SegovianaExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.27

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.29

Cultural Leonesa

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

1.26

creates per match

1.16

1.37

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.26

Cultural Leonesa

1.16

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.37

Cultural Leonesa

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw

64%

Gimnástica Segoviana or Cultural Leonesa

73%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

63%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

16%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

72%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

37%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

14%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

72%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

36%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

51%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.26 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

37%

level

27%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

36%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Juan Silva

23'

P. Astray

39'

Abel Pascual

57'

Barri← Carlos Calderón

57'

A. Pastoriza← Juan Artola

57'

Bicho← Sergi Maestre

62'

K. Presa

65'

Antón Escobar← Kevin Presa

67'

Diego Gómez← J. Farrell

67'

Manu Olmedilla← Hugo Díaz

73'

Guzmán Ortega← Lanchi

77'

Barri

79'

Álex Maroto← Pedro Astray

79'

Fernán Ferreiroa← Fer Llorente

89'

Hugo Marcos← Berlanga

90+3'

Pibe

90'

Manu Justo

Gimnástica

Cultural

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ramsés

67'▲Diego Gómez←▼J. Farrell

67'▲Manu Olmedilla←▼Hugo Díaz

79'▲Álex Maroto←▼Pedro Astray

79'▲Fernán Ferreiroa←▼Fer Llorente

89'▲Hugo Marcos←▼Berlanga

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

GómezOlmedillaMarotoFerreiroaMarcosTellecheaPérezPostigoMolina

Manager: Raúl Llona

57'▲Barri←▼Carlos Calderón

57'▲A. Pastoriza←▼Juan Artola

57'▲Bicho←▼Sergi Maestre

65'▲Antón Escobar←▼Kevin Presa

73'▲Guzmán Ortega←▼Lanchi

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

BarriPastorizaBichoEscobarOrtegaAmigoSuárezSamanesMartínezAlbaRuiz

Match Recap: Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa

Gimnástica Segoviana and Cultural Leonesa drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 16, 2025.

Goals: Abel Pascual (39'), Manu Justo (90').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.

Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa