Cultural Leonesa 2–3 Gimnástica Segoviana

Cultural Leonesa

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Gimnástica Segoviana

Quique Fornos 49'

Luis Chacón 29'

Davo 90+2'

Fer Llorente 58'

Pedro Astray 45+1'

12/15/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cultural Leonesa58%

×Draw23%

Gimnástica Segoviana20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchGimnástica Segoviana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.96

Cultural Leonesa

1.83

Gimnástica Segoviana

0.96

Cultural Leonesa creates 91% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 19 away

1.41

creates per match

1.00

0.91

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.41

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.00

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.91

Gimnástica Segoviana

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Gimnástica Segoviana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

80%

Cultural Leonesa or Gimnástica Segoviana

77%

Draw or Gimnástica Segoviana

42%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

33%

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

84%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

54%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

28%

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

62%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

25%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

75%

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Gimnástica Segoviana away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.83

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.00 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

58%

level

23%

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

20%

Cultural Leonesa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

29'

33'

39'

45+1'

48'

49'

54'

56'

58'

60'

63'

Barri← Txus Alba

66'

Fernán Ferreiroa← Pedro Astray

66'

Ignacio Tellechea← Javi Borrego

66'

Manu Olmedilla← Juan de la Mata

68'

Chupo

71'

Juan Artola← Antón Escobar

71'

Carlos Calderón← A. Pastoriza

85'

Hugo Díaz← Fer Llorente

89'

Ian Martínez← Sergi Maestre

90+2'

Davo

Cultural

Gimnástica

⚽

▼

Llorente

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Raúl Llona

63'▲Barri←▼Txus Alba

71'▲Juan Artola←▼Antón Escobar

71'▲Carlos Calderón←▼A. Pastoriza

89'▲Ian Martínez←▼Sergi Maestre

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

BarriArtolaCalderónMartínezRuizRuizRuizSuárezSamanes

Manager: Ramsés

39'▲Davo←▼Diego Gómez

66'▲Fernán Ferreiroa←▼Pedro Astray

66'▲Ignacio Tellechea←▼Javi Borrego

66'▲Manu Olmedilla←▼Juan de la Mata

85'▲Hugo Díaz←▼Fer Llorente

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

DavoFerreiroaTellecheaOlmedillaDíazLópezMarcosChangyiCarmonaSanz

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cultural Leonesa 2–3 Gimnástica Segoviana

Gimnástica Segoviana beat Cultural Leonesa 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 15, 2024.

Goals: Luis Chacón (29'), Pedro Astray (45+1'), Quique Fornos (49'), Fer Llorente (58'), Davo (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.

Cultural Leonesa vs Gimnástica Segoviana — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cultural Leonesa 2–3 Gimnástica Segoviana