Gimnástica Segoviana 2–0 Cristo Atlético

Gimnástica Segoviana

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cristo Atlético

Ivi 28'

Rui Gomes 13'

5/9/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana55%

×Draw24%

Cristo Atlético21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnástica SegovianaExpected goals in this matchCristo Atlético

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.98

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.73

Cristo Atlético

0.98

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 77% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 80 away

2.52

creates per match

1.36

0.59

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

2.52

Cristo Atlético

1.36

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

0.59

Cristo Atlético

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Cristo Atlético →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw

79%

Gimnástica Segoviana or Cristo Atlético

76%

Draw or Cristo Atlético

45%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

30%

Cristo Atlético wins by 2+

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

82%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

52%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

25%

Cristo Atlético 1+ goals

62%

Cristo Atlético 2+ goals

26%

Cristo Atlético 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

72%

Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

Cristo Atlético away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 2.52 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cristo Atlético attack 1.36 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

55%

level

24%

Cristo Atlético scores more

21%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Rui Gomes

28'

Ivi

49'

Alex Conde← Nogueira

49'

Diego del Castillo← Ivi

61'

Daniel Arribas← Rui Gomes

61'

Víctor Martín← Jorge Sánchez

61'

Sellés← Víctor García

61'

Zubi← Charly

75'

David Martín← Jesús Torres

75'

Víctor Abajo← Álvaro González

75'

Pablo← Luis Obispo

Gimnástica

Cristo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ivi

Borrego

Manager: Manu González

49'▲Alex Conde←▼Nogueira

49'▲Diego del Castillo←▼Ivi

61'▲Daniel Arribas←▼Rui Gomes

61'▲Víctor Martín←▼Jorge Sánchez

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

CondeCastilloArribasMartín

Manager: Rubén Gala

61'▲Sellés←▼Víctor García

61'▲Zubi←▼Charly

75'▲David Martín←▼Jesús Torres

75'▲Víctor Abajo←▼Álvaro González

75'▲Pablo←▼Luis Obispo

Cristo Atlético substitutes

SellésZubiMartínAbajoPablo

Match Recap: Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cristo Atlético

Gimnástica Segoviana beat Cristo Atlético 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 9, 2021.

Goals: Rui Gomes (13'), Ivi (28').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.

Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cristo Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cristo Atlético