Cristo Atlético 0–1 Gimnástica Segoviana

Cristo Atlético

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gimnástica Segoviana

Daniel Arribas 30'

3/1/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 29Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cristo Atlético30%

×Draw29%

Gimnástica Segoviana41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cristo AtléticoExpected goals in this matchGimnástica Segoviana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.19

Cristo Atlético

0.97

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.19

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 23% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 28 away

1.38

creates per match

1.68

0.69

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Cristo Atlético

1.38

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.68

allows per match

Cristo Atlético

0.69

Gimnástica Segoviana

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cristo Atlético ↓

Gimnástica Segoviana →

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cristo Atlético or draw

59%

Cristo Atlético or Gimnástica Segoviana

71%

Draw or Gimnástica Segoviana

70%

Winning margin

Cristo Atlético wins by 2+

11%

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cristo Atlético 1+ goals

62%

Cristo Atlético 2+ goals

25%

Cristo Atlético 3+ goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

70%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

33%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)

42%

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cristo Atlético at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.69 · 80 matches

Gimnástica Segoviana away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cristo Atlético attack 1.38 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.97

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.68 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cristo Atlético scores more

30%

level

29%

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

41%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Daniel Arribas

46'

Adrián Pérez← Miguel Blanco

46'

Edu Gallardo← Álvaro González

58'

Elías← Alex Conde

70'

Dani Calleja← Daniel Arribas

74'

Dani Abad← Ivi

86'

Juan Fraile← Alberto Escarda

Cristo

Gimnástica

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Rubén Gala

46'▲Adrián Pérez←▼Miguel Blanco

46'▲Edu Gallardo←▼Álvaro González

86'▲Juan Fraile←▼Alberto Escarda

Cristo Atlético substitutes

PérezGallardoFraile

Manager: Manu González

58'▲Elías←▼Alex Conde

70'▲Dani Calleja←▼Daniel Arribas

74'▲Dani Abad←▼Ivi

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

ElíasCallejaAbad