Gimnástica Segoviana 1–0 Arenteiro: Result & Stats

Gimnástica Segoviana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arenteiro

4/17/2022

League #875 · Group 1 - 30Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana38%

×Draw42%

Arenteiro20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnástica SegovianaExpected goals in this matchArenteiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

0.45

Gimnástica Segoviana

0.72

Arenteiro

0.45

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 60% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

0.44

creates per match

0.33

0.56

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

0.44

Arenteiro

0.33

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

0.56

Arenteiro

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Arenteiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under89
Over11

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No81
Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Arenteiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–031%

0–114%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (31%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

69%31%1.5

33%67%2.5

11%89%3.5

3%97%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw

80%

Gimnástica Segoviana or Arenteiro

58%

Draw or Arenteiro

62%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

11%

Arenteiro wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

51%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

16%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

4%

Arenteiro 1+ goals

36%

Arenteiro 2+ goals

8%

Arenteiro 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

65%

Arenteiro (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

9%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 0.44, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Arenteiro away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 0.44 + Arenteiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.72

Arenteiro attack 0.33 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

38%

level

42%

Arenteiro scores more

20%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff