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Arenteiro vs Gimnástica Segoviana — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arenteiro
Arenteiro
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
9/29/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio de Espiñedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arenteiro55%
×Draw24%
Gimnástica Segoviana22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenteiro
1.73
Gimnástica Segoviana
0.99

Arenteiro creates 75% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Arenteiro
1.21
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.00

allows per match

Arenteiro
0.98
Gimnástica Segoviana
2.26

finishing

Arenteiro+0.00on par
Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenteiro ↓

Gimnástica Segoviana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arenteiro or draw
78%
Arenteiro or Gimnástica Segoviana
76%
Draw or Gimnástica Segoviana
45%

Winning margin

Arenteiro wins by 2+
30%
Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arenteiro 1+ goals
82%
Arenteiro 2+ goals
52%
Arenteiro 3+ goals
25%
Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
63%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
26%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arenteiro (draw refunded)
72%
Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenteiro at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Gimnástica Segoviana away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenteiro attack 1.21 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.00 + Arenteiro defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Arenteiro scores more
55%
level
24%
Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
22%

Arenteiro at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Arenteiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arenteiro vs Gimnástica Segoviana

Arenteiro beat Gimnástica Segoviana 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Espiñedo in O Carballiño.