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Gimnastic vs Fuenlabrada — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
4/7/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Nou Estadi Costa Daurada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gimnastic60%
×Draw25%
Fuenlabrada15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.60
Fuenlabrada
0.65

Gimnastic creates 146% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.71
Fuenlabrada
0.58

allows per match

Gimnastic
0.71
Fuenlabrada
1.50

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Fuenlabrada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
85%
Gimnastic or Fuenlabrada
75%
Draw or Fuenlabrada
40%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
33%
Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
80%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
47%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
22%
Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
48%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
14%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
80%
Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.71 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Fuenlabrada attack 0.58 + Gimnastic defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gimnastic scores more
60%
level
25%
Fuenlabrada scores more
15%

Gimnastic at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnastic vs Fuenlabrada

Gimnastic beat Fuenlabrada 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Costa Daurada in Tarragona.