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Fuenlabrada vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnastic
Gimnastic
10/15/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Fernando Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fuenlabrada39%
×Draw31%
Gimnastic30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuenlabrada
1.06
Gimnastic
0.88

Fuenlabrada creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

Fuenlabrada
1.08
Gimnastic
0.89

allows per match

Fuenlabrada
0.86
Gimnastic
1.05

finishing

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par
Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuenlabrada ↓

Gimnastic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fuenlabrada or draw
70%
Fuenlabrada or Gimnastic
69%
Draw or Gimnastic
61%

Winning margin

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
16%
Gimnastic wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
65%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
29%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
9%
Gimnastic 1+ goals
59%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
22%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
57%
Gimnastic (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuenlabrada at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuenlabrada attack 1.08 + Gimnastic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Gimnastic attack 0.89 + Fuenlabrada defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fuenlabrada scores more
39%
level
31%
Gimnastic scores more
30%

Fuenlabrada at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fuenlabrada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fuenlabrada vs Gimnastic

Fuenlabrada beat Gimnastic 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Torres in Fuenlabrada.