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Gimnastic vs Alcorcon — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
Preview
16:00
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
1/17/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Nou Estadi de Tarragona
46%
Gimnastic
model favours
46%28%26%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gimnastic46%
×Draw28%
Alcorcon26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.33
Alcorcon
0.94

Gimnastic creates 41% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.35
Alcorcon
0.92

allows per match

Gimnastic
0.96
Alcorcon
1.32

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Alcorcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
74%
Gimnastic or Alcorcon
72%
Draw or Alcorcon
54%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
21%
Alcorcon wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
74%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
38%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
15%
Alcorcon 1+ goals
61%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
24%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
63%
Alcorcon (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.35 + Alcorcon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Alcorcon attack 0.92 + Gimnastic defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gimnastic scores more
46%
level
28%
Alcorcon scores more
26%

Gimnastic at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Gimnastic
DWLWL
Alcorcon
DWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gimnastic vs Alcorcon — Match Preview

Gimnastic face Alcorcon on January 17, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Gimnastic host Alcorcon at Nou Estadi de Tarragona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.