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Gimnastic vs Alcorcon — Segunda División 2018

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
10/15/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Nou Estadi Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Gimnastic39%
×Draw29%
Alcorcon32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.19
Alcorcon
1.04

Gimnastic creates 14% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 105 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.05
Alcorcon
0.90

allows per match

Gimnastic
1.19
Alcorcon
1.33

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Alcorcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
68%
Gimnastic or Alcorcon
71%
Draw or Alcorcon
61%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
17%
Alcorcon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
70%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
33%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
12%
Alcorcon 1+ goals
65%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
28%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
55%
Alcorcon (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.33 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.05 + Alcorcon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Gimnastic defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gimnastic scores more
39%
level
29%
Alcorcon scores more
32%

Gimnastic at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnastic vs Alcorcon

Alcorcon beat Gimnastic 3-1 in Segunda División on October 15, 2018.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Municipal in Tarragona.