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Alcorcon vs Gimnastic — Segunda División 2018

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gimnastic
Gimnastic
6/1/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 41Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alcorcon51%
×Draw28%
Gimnastic21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.35
Gimnastic
0.74

Alcorcon creates 82% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 21 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
0.90
Gimnastic
0.38

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.10
Gimnastic
1.81

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Gimnastic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
79%
Alcorcon or Gimnastic
72%
Draw or Gimnastic
49%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
25%
Gimnastic wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
74%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
39%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
15%
Gimnastic 1+ goals
52%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
17%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
71%
Gimnastic (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 105 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Gimnastic defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gimnastic attack 0.38 + Alcorcon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alcorcon scores more
51%
level
28%
Gimnastic scores more
21%

Alcorcon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Alcorcon 0–1 Gimnastic

Gimnastic beat Alcorcon 1-0 in Segunda División on June 1, 2019.

The match was played at Santo Domingo in Alcorcon.