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Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Deportivo Maipu — Primera Nacional 2026

Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Preview
21:00
Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipu
7/26/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 22Estadio El Gigante del Norte
Big match
46%
Gimnasia Y Tiro
model favours
46%31%23%

Deportivo Maipu are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
71%
under 2.5 goals
36%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro46%
×Draw31%
Deportivo Maipu23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.16
Deportivo Maipu
0.73

Gimnasia Y Tiro creates 59% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 100 away

creates per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.14
Deportivo Maipu
0.94

allows per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.53
Deportivo Maipu
1.18

finishing

Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par
Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia Y Tiro ↓

Deportivo Maipu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw
77%
Gimnasia Y Tiro or Deportivo Maipu
69%
Draw or Deportivo Maipu
54%

Winning margin

Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals
69%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals
32%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals
52%
Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals
17%
Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)
67%
Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia Y Tiro at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.53 · 49 matches

Deportivo Maipu away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 1.14 + Deportivo Maipu defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Deportivo Maipu attack 0.94 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more
46%
level
31%
Deportivo Maipu scores more
23%

Gimnasia Y Tiro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gimnasia Y Tiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 77% of Deportivo Maipu’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tiro
DWDLW
Maipu
DWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gimnasia Y Tiro face Deportivo Maipu (Primera Nacional)

Primera Nacional returns with Gimnasia Y Tiro hosting Deportivo Maipu. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gimnasia Y Tiro host Deportivo Maipu at Estadio El Gigante del Norte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.