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Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Defensores Unidos — Primera Nacional 2026

Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos
3/3/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 5Estadio El Gigante del Norte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro58%
×Draw28%
Defensores Unidos14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.34
Defensores Unidos
0.49

Gimnasia Y Tiro creates 173% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 54 away

creates per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.14
Defensores Unidos
0.46

allows per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.53
Defensores Unidos
1.54

finishing

Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par
Defensores Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia Y Tiro ↓

Defensores Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw
86%
Gimnasia Y Tiro or Defensores Unidos
72%
Draw or Defensores Unidos
42%

Winning margin

Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+
29%
Defensores Unidos wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals
74%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals
39%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals
15%
Defensores Unidos 1+ goals
39%
Defensores Unidos 2+ goals
9%
Defensores Unidos 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)
81%
Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia Y Tiro at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.53 · 49 matches

Defensores Unidos away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 1.14 + Defensores Unidos defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Defensores Unidos attack 0.46 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more
58%
level
28%
Defensores Unidos scores more
14%

Gimnasia Y Tiro at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gimnasia Y Tiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Defensores Unidos

Gimnasia Y Tiro beat Defensores Unidos 1-0 in Primera Nacional on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Gigante del Norte in Salta, Provincia de Salta.