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Defensores Unidos vs Gimnasia Y Tiro — Primera Nacional 2026

Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
7/21/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 24Estadio Gigante de Villa Fox

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Defensores Unidos40%
×Draw34%
Gimnasia Y Tiro26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores Unidos
0.95
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.71

Defensores Unidos creates 34% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 47 away

creates per match

Defensores Unidos
0.96
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.57

allows per match

Defensores Unidos
0.85
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.94

finishing

Defensores Unidos+0.00on par
Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores Unidos ↓

Gimnasia Y Tiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Defensores Unidos or draw
74%
Defensores Unidos or Gimnasia Y Tiro
66%
Draw or Gimnasia Y Tiro
60%

Winning margin

Defensores Unidos wins by 2+
15%
Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Defensores Unidos 1+ goals
61%
Defensores Unidos 2+ goals
25%
Defensores Unidos 3+ goals
7%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals
51%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals
16%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)
60%
Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.85 · 54 matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro away — creates 0.57, concedes 0.94 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores Unidos attack 0.96 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 0.57 + Defensores Unidos defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Defensores Unidos scores more
40%
level
34%
Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more
26%

Defensores Unidos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Defensores Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Defensores Unidos 0–1 Gimnasia Y Tiro

Gimnasia Y Tiro beat Defensores Unidos 1-0 in Primera Nacional on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Villa Fox in Zárate, Provincia de Buenos Aires.