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Gimnasia Y Tiro vs AH Zapla — Torneo Federal A 2018

Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AH Zapla
AH Zapla
2/3/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 1Estadio El Gigante del Norte (Salta, Provincia de Salta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro66%
×Draw24%
AH Zapla10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.64
AH Zapla
0.48

Gimnasia Y Tiro creates 242% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 12 away

creates per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.45
AH Zapla
0.33

allows per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.63
AH Zapla
1.83

finishing

Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par
AH Zapla+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia Y Tiro ↓

AH Zapla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw
90%
Gimnasia Y Tiro or AH Zapla
76%
Draw or AH Zapla
34%

Winning margin

Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+
37%
AH Zapla wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals
81%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals
49%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals
23%
AH Zapla 1+ goals
38%
AH Zapla 2+ goals
8%
AH Zapla 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)
86%
AH Zapla (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia Y Tiro at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.63 · 64 matches

AH Zapla away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 1.45 + AH Zapla defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

AH Zapla attack 0.33 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more
66%
level
24%
AH Zapla scores more
10%

Gimnasia Y Tiro at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Gimnasia Y Tiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Gimnasia Y Tiro 1–0 AH Zapla

Gimnasia Y Tiro beat AH Zapla 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on February 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Gigante del Norte (Salta, Provincia de Salta).