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AH Zapla vs Gimnasia Y Tiro — Copa Argentina 2018

AH Zapla
AH Zapla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
1/24/2019Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 2nd Qualifying RoundEstadio Coronel Emilio Fabrizzi (Palpalá, Provincia de Jujuy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AH Zapla40%
×Draw31%
Gimnasia Y Tiro28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AH Zapla
1.08
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.85

AH Zapla creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

AH Zapla
0.67
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.38

allows per match

AH Zapla
1.33
Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.50

finishing

AH Zapla+0.00on par
Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AH Zapla ↓

Gimnasia Y Tiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AH Zapla or draw
72%
AH Zapla or Gimnasia Y Tiro
69%
Draw or Gimnasia Y Tiro
60%

Winning margin

AH Zapla wins by 2+
16%
Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AH Zapla 1+ goals
66%
AH Zapla 2+ goals
29%
AH Zapla 3+ goals
10%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals
57%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals
21%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AH Zapla (draw refunded)
59%
Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AH Zapla at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AH Zapla attack 0.67 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 0.38 + AH Zapla defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AH Zapla scores more
40%
level
31%
Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more
28%

AH Zapla at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AH Zapla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Argentina: AH Zapla 1–0 Gimnasia Y Tiro

AH Zapla beat Gimnasia Y Tiro 1-0 in Copa Argentina on January 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Coronel Emilio Fabrizzi (Palpalá, Provincia de Jujuy).