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Gimnasia L.P. vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Platense
Platense
G. Fratta 88'
M. Pérez 73'
M. Tissera 38'
B. Mansilla 31'
7/17/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.41%
×Draw30%
Platense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia L.P.
1.16
Platense
0.93

Gimnasia L.P. creates 25% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.11
Platense
0.73

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.12
Platense
1.21

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.19scores less
Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw
71%
Gimnasia L.P. or Platense
70%
Draw or Platense
59%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
17%
Platense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
69%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
32%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
11%
Platense 1+ goals
61%
Platense 2+ goals
24%
Platense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
58%
Platense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 24 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.11 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Platense attack 0.73 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more
41%
level
30%
Platense scores more
29%

Gimnasia L.P. at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. PérezGimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P. · M
7.7

Match Events

31'
B. Mansilla
38'
M. Tissera↳ N. Zalazar
46'
M. Coronel← G. Guiffrey
56'
L. Contín← S. Cocimano
56'
M. Pérez← J. Carbonero
62'
Matías Tissera
71'
J. Pereyra← M. Tissera
73'
M. Pérez
75'
N. Colazo← F. Torres
76'
Francisco Gerometta
76'
T. Palacios← B. Mansilla
77'
H. Tijanovich← F. Baldassarra
81'
M. Insaurralde← B. Alemán
87'
Tiago Palacios
88'
J. Marcioni← F. Russo
88'
G. Fratta↳ L. Contín
90+4'
Nicolás Contín
90+5'
Facundo Cardozo

Possession

68%Gimnasia

Shots

6Gimnasia

Pass accuracy

59%Gimnasia

Statistics

GimnasiaPlatense
Overview
68%Possession32%
6Total Shots6
4Corners2
15Fouls25
Shots
6Total Shots6
3On Target2
3Off Target1
0Blocked3
5Inside Box5
1Outside Box1
Passing
68%Possession32%
539Total Passes250
439Accurate Passes143
81%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls25
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Gimnasia L.P. vs Platense

Gimnasia L.P. and Platense drew 2-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 17, 2021.

Goals: B. Mansilla (31'), M. Tissera (38'), M. Pérez (73'), G. Fratta (88').

Gimnasia L.P. controlled possession (68%) and registered 6 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.