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Gimnasia Concepción vs Atletico Parana — Torneo Federal A 2018

Gimnasia Concepción
Gimnasia Concepción
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
12/9/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 2 - 18Estadio Manuel y Ramón Núñez (Concepción del Uruguay, Provincia de Entre Rios)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Gimnasia Concepción51%
×Draw28%
Atletico Parana21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia Concepción
1.38
Atletico Parana
0.78

Gimnasia Concepción creates 77% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 28 away

creates per match

Gimnasia Concepción
1.14
Atletico Parana
0.68

allows per match

Gimnasia Concepción
0.87
Atletico Parana
1.61

finishing

Gimnasia Concepción+0.00on par
Atletico Parana+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia Concepción ↓

Atletico Parana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gimnasia Concepción or draw
79%
Gimnasia Concepción or Atletico Parana
72%
Draw or Atletico Parana
49%

Winning margin

Gimnasia Concepción wins by 2+
25%
Atletico Parana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gimnasia Concepción 1+ goals
75%
Gimnasia Concepción 2+ goals
40%
Gimnasia Concepción 3+ goals
16%
Atletico Parana 1+ goals
54%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
18%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia Concepción (draw refunded)
71%
Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia Concepción at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.87 · 108 matches

Atletico Parana away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia Concepción attack 1.14 + Atletico Parana defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Atletico Parana attack 0.68 + Gimnasia Concepción defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gimnasia Concepción scores more
51%
level
28%
Atletico Parana scores more
21%

Gimnasia Concepción at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gimnasia Concepción will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gimnasia Concepción 5 – 1 Atletico Parana

Gimnasia Concepción beat Atletico Parana 5-1 in Torneo Federal A on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel y Ramón Núñez (Concepción del Uruguay, Provincia de Entre Rios).