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Atletico Parana vs Gimnasia Concepción — Torneo Federal A 2018

Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gimnasia Concepción
Gimnasia Concepción
10/21/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 2 - 9Estadio Pedro Mutio (Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Atletico Parana43%
×Draw29%
Gimnasia Concepción28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Parana
1.25
Gimnasia Concepción
0.96

Atletico Parana creates 30% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 106 away

creates per match

Atletico Parana
1.00
Gimnasia Concepción
0.60

allows per match

Atletico Parana
1.31
Gimnasia Concepción
1.51

finishing

Atletico Parana+0.00on par
Gimnasia Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Parana ↓

Gimnasia Concepción →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Parana or draw
72%
Atletico Parana or Gimnasia Concepción
71%
Draw or Gimnasia Concepción
57%

Winning margin

Atletico Parana wins by 2+
19%
Gimnasia Concepción wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico Parana 1+ goals
71%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
36%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
13%
Gimnasia Concepción 1+ goals
62%
Gimnasia Concepción 2+ goals
25%
Gimnasia Concepción 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
60%
Gimnasia Concepción (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Parana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Gimnasia Concepción away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.51 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Parana attack 1.00 + Gimnasia Concepción defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gimnasia Concepción attack 0.60 + Atletico Parana defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atletico Parana scores more
43%
level
29%
Gimnasia Concepción scores more
28%

Atletico Parana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atletico Parana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Parana vs Gimnasia Concepción

Atletico Parana beat Gimnasia Concepción 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Mutio (Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos).