Gimhae City 2–0 Cheongju: Result & Stats

Gimhae City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cheongju

5/28/2022

K3 League · Round 14Gimhae Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Gimhae City48%

×Draw27%

Cheongju24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimhae CityExpected goals in this matchCheongju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.91

Gimhae City

1.40

Cheongju

0.91

Gimhae City creates 54% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 40 away

1.55

creates per match

0.90

0.91

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Gimhae City

1.55

Cheongju

0.90

allows per match

Gimhae City

0.91

Cheongju

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimhae City+0.00on par

Cheongju+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimhae City ↓

Cheongju →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gimhae City or draw

76%

Gimhae City or Cheongju

73%

Draw or Cheongju

52%

Winning margin

Gimhae City wins by 2+

23%

Cheongju wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gimhae City 1+ goals

75%

Gimhae City 2+ goals

41%

Gimhae City 3+ goals

17%

Cheongju 1+ goals

60%

Cheongju 2+ goals

23%

Cheongju 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gimhae City (draw refunded)

66%

Cheongju (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimhae City at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

Cheongju away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimhae City attack 1.55 + Cheongju defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cheongju attack 0.90 + Gimhae City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gimhae City scores more

48%

level

27%

Cheongju scores more

24%

Gimhae City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff