Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cheongju vs Gimhae City — K3 League 2026

Cheongju
Cheongju
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gimhae City
Gimhae City
10/23/2021K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 27Cheongju Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Cheongju29%
×Draw27%
Gimhae City43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheongju
1.05
Gimhae City
1.33

Gimhae City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 99 away

creates per match

Cheongju
1.18
Gimhae City
1.29

allows per match

Cheongju
1.38
Gimhae City
0.93

finishing

Cheongju+0.00on par
Gimhae City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheongju ↓

Gimhae City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cheongju or draw
57%
Cheongju or Gimhae City
73%
Draw or Gimhae City
71%

Winning margin

Cheongju wins by 2+
11%
Gimhae City wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Cheongju 1+ goals
65%
Cheongju 2+ goals
28%
Cheongju 3+ goals
9%
Gimhae City 1+ goals
74%
Gimhae City 2+ goals
38%
Gimhae City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cheongju (draw refunded)
41%
Gimhae City (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheongju at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

Gimhae City away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheongju attack 1.18 + Gimhae City defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Gimhae City attack 1.29 + Cheongju defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cheongju scores more
29%
level
27%
Gimhae City scores more
43%

Gimhae City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cheongju vs Gimhae City

Cheongju beat Gimhae City 3-0 in K3 League on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Cheongju Stadium in Cheongju.