Gimhae City 2–1 Changwon City: Result & Stats

Gimhae City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Changwon City

Na Sung-Eun 90', 56'

H. Seol 90'

J. Ha 8'

9/7/2025

K3 League · Round 23Gimhae Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Gimhae City45%

×Draw28%

Changwon City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimhae CityExpected goals in this matchChangwon City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.97

Gimhae City

1.34

Changwon City

0.97

Gimhae City creates 38% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 104 away

1.55

creates per match

1.02

0.91

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Gimhae City

1.55

Changwon City

1.02

allows per match

Gimhae City

0.91

Changwon City

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimhae City+0.00on par

Changwon City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimhae City ↓

Changwon City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gimhae City or draw

73%

Gimhae City or Changwon City

72%

Draw or Changwon City

55%

Winning margin

Gimhae City wins by 2+

21%

Changwon City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gimhae City 1+ goals

74%

Gimhae City 2+ goals

39%

Gimhae City 3+ goals

15%

Changwon City 1+ goals

62%

Changwon City 2+ goals

25%

Changwon City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gimhae City (draw refunded)

63%

Changwon City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimhae City at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

Changwon City away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.13 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimhae City attack 1.55 + Changwon City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Changwon City attack 1.02 + Gimhae City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gimhae City scores more

45%

level

28%

Changwon City scores more

27%

Gimhae City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Ha

56'

Na Sung-Eun

90+4'

Na Sung-Eun

90'

Na Sung-Eun

90'

H. Seol

Gimhae

Changwon

Manager: Son Hyun-Joon

Manager: Lee Young-Jin