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Changwon City vs Gimhae City — FA Cup 2019

Changwon City
Changwon City
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Gimhae City
Gimhae Cityadvanced
Unknown 90+3'
Unknown 57'
J. Yeo 33', 15'
Lee Jun-Gyu 24'
W. Hong 8'
7/15/2026FA CupFA Cup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Changwon City44%
×Draw22%
Gimhae City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changwon City
1.95
Gimhae City
1.70

Changwon City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Changwon City
2.50
Gimhae City
2.00

allows per match

Changwon City
1.40
Gimhae City
1.40

finishing

Changwon City+0.00on par
Gimhae City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changwon City ↓

Gimhae City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Changwon City or draw
66%
Changwon City or Gimhae City
78%
Draw or Gimhae City
56%

Winning margin

Changwon City wins by 2+
24%
Gimhae City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Changwon City 1+ goals
86%
Changwon City 2+ goals
58%
Changwon City 3+ goals
31%
Gimhae City 1+ goals
82%
Gimhae City 2+ goals
51%
Gimhae City 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Changwon City (draw refunded)
56%
Gimhae City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changwon City at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Gimhae City away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changwon City attack 2.50 + Gimhae City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.95

Gimhae City attack 2.00 + Changwon City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Changwon City scores more
44%
level
22%
Gimhae City scores more
34%

Changwon City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Changwon City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
W. Hong
15'
J. Yeo
24'
Lee Jun-Gyu
33'
J. Yeo
57'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Changwon City 1–5 Gimhae City

Gimhae City beat Changwon City 5-1 in FA Cup on July 15, 2026.

Goals: W. Hong (8'), J. Yeo (15', 33'), Lee Jun-Gyu (24'), ? (57', 90+3').