Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Preview

07:30

Gangwon FC

9/13/2026

K League 1 · Round 29Gimcheon Stadium

Big match

42%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

model favours

42%27%31%

Gangwon FC score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC42%

×Draw27%

Gangwon FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimcheon Sangmu FCExpected goals in this matchGangwon FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.11

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.35

Gangwon FC

1.11

Gimcheon Sangmu FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 158 away

1.32

creates per match

1.04

1.19

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.32

Gangwon FC

1.04

allows per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.19

Gangwon FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Gangwon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓

Gangwon FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw

69%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Gangwon FC

73%

Draw or Gangwon FC

58%

Winning margin

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+

20%

Gangwon FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals

74%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals

39%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals

15%

Gangwon FC 1+ goals

67%

Gangwon FC 2+ goals

30%

Gangwon FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

58%

Gangwon FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 119 matches

Gangwon FC away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.32 + Gangwon FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gangwon FC attack 1.04 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more

42%

level

27%

Gangwon FC scores more

31%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Even after scoring first, Gimcheon Sangmu FC win only 40%
33% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC’s goals come after the 75th minute
Gangwon FC outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.6 expected)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC fall short of their xG (2.0 vs 2.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Attack-heavy

Gangwon FC

Balanced

57%Possession48%

85%Pass accuracy79%

14.2Shots11.8

2.54xGBiggest gap0.61

Gimcheon Sangmu FCGangwon FC

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1

Draws

4

Gangwon FC

Avg goals: 2BTTS: 20%

0–30–10–04–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

FC

DDLD

FC

LDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff