Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Preview

07:30

FC Anyang

10/10/2026

K League 1 · Round 31Gimcheon Stadium

Big match

38%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

model favours

38%28%35%

Even after scoring first, Gimcheon Sangmu FC win only 40%

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC38%

×Draw28%

FC Anyang35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimcheon Sangmu FCExpected goals in this matchFC Anyang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.18

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.24

FC Anyang

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 28 away

1.30

creates per match

1.18

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.30

FC Anyang

1.18

allows per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.18

FC Anyang

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

FC Anyang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓

FC Anyang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw

65%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or FC Anyang

72%

Draw or FC Anyang

62%

Winning margin

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+

16%

FC Anyang wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals

71%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals

35%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals

13%

FC Anyang 1+ goals

69%

FC Anyang 2+ goals

33%

FC Anyang 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

52%

FC Anyang (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 103 matches

FC Anyang away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.30 + FC Anyang defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

FC Anyang attack 1.18 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more

38%

level

28%

FC Anyang scores more

35%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

FC Anyang have scored in 8 games running
FC Anyang score first in only 33% of matches
Style contrast — Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Possession-dominant, FC Anyang Defensively solid
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
33% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC’s goals come after the 75th minute
Gimcheon Sangmu FC fall short of their xG (1.9 vs 2.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Possession-dominant

FC Anyang

Defensively solid

57%Possession46%

84%Pass accuracy79%

13.3Shots11.6

2.54xGBiggest gap1.33

Gimcheon Sangmu FCFC Anyang

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

4

Draws

3

FC Anyang

Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 70%

2–21–11–41–03–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

FC

LDDLD

Anyang

WLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff