FC Anyang 4–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Result & Stats

FC Anyang

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

10/18/2025

K League 1 · Round 33Anyang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

FC Anyang41%

×Draw26%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AnyangExpected goals in this matchGimcheon Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.21

FC Anyang

1.37

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.21

FC Anyang creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 117 away

1.36

creates per match

1.23

1.18

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

FC Anyang

1.36

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.23

allows per match

FC Anyang

1.18

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Anyang+0.00on par

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Anyang ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Anyang or draw

67%

FC Anyang or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

74%

Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

59%

Winning margin

FC Anyang wins by 2+

19%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Anyang 1+ goals

75%

FC Anyang 2+ goals

40%

FC Anyang 3+ goals

16%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals

70%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals

34%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Anyang (draw refunded)

55%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Anyang at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Anyang attack 1.36 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.37

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + FC Anyang defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Anyang scores more

41%

level

26%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more

33%

FC Anyang at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Anyang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff