Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 — K League 1 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Gimcheon Sangmu FC41%
Bucheon FC 199531%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC creates 21% more chances
Season form · 48 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches
Bucheon FC 1995 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.38 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29
Bucheon FC 1995 attack 1.10 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Jeonbuk MotorsGimcheon Sangmu FC
Daejeon Citizen
Pohang Steelers
FC Seoul
Gangwon FC
FC Anyang
Gwangju FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Suwon City FC
Jeju United FC
Daegu FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Bucheon FC 1995 on Saturday, 11 July 2026 at 10:30. The match is part of the K League 1 2024/2025 season.
K League 1: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–1 Bucheon FC 1995
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995 drew 1-1 in K League 1 on July 11, 2026.
Goals: Go Jae-Hyeon (29'), Baek Dong-Gyu (32').
The match was played at Gimcheon Stadium in Gimcheon.