Bucheon FC 1995 0–2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Bucheon FC 1995

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Byeon Jun-Soo 83'

Kim Joo-Chan 30'

4/25/2026

K League 1 · Round 10Bucheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bucheon FC 199536%

×Draw30%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bucheon FC 1995Expected goals in this matchGimcheon Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.06

Bucheon FC 1995

1.08

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 117 away

0.78

creates per match

1.23

0.89

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Bucheon FC 1995

0.78

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.23

allows per match

Bucheon FC 1995

0.89

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bucheon FC 1995+0.00on par

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucheon FC 1995 ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bucheon FC 1995 or draw

65%

Bucheon FC 1995 or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

70%

Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

64%

Winning margin

Bucheon FC 1995 wins by 2+

14%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bucheon FC 1995 1+ goals

66%

Bucheon FC 1995 2+ goals

29%

Bucheon FC 1995 3+ goals

10%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals

65%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals

29%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bucheon FC 1995 (draw refunded)

51%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucheon FC 1995 at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.78 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.08

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bucheon FC 1995 scores more

36%

level

30%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more

35%

Bucheon FC 1995 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bucheon FC 1995 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55

T. Park

Gimcheon Sangmu FC · M

8.0

Match Events

22'

30'

45'

52'

56'

K. Takahashi← Kim Sang-Jun

56'

Rodrigo Bassani← Kim Min-Jun

57'

Deok-geun Lim

57'

Lim Dug-Keun← Lee Soo-Bin

71'

Kim Hyun-Woo← Lee Sang-Heon

71'

Kim In-Gyun← Kim Joo-Chan

73'

In-kyun Kim

76'

Hyeon-uh Kim

79'

Lee Eui-Hyeong← Vitor Gabriel

82'

Galego

82'

Galego

82'

GalegoCard upgrade

83'

Byeon Jun-Soo↳ Go Jae-Hyeon

86'

S. Seong← Yoon Bit-Garam

86'

Uh Dam← Jeong Ho-Jin

86'

Yoon Jae-Seok← Go Jae-Hyeon

87'

Jung Jae-Min← G. Lee

90+5'

Jong-beom BaekGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucheonGimcheon

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots15

1Corners7

14Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots15

4On Target4

4Off Target6

2Blocked5

4Inside Box12

6Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

345Total Passes464

272Accurate Passes380

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2