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Gillingham vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
Preview
15:00
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
1/30/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 28Priestfield Stadium
Big match
39%
Gillingham
model favours
39%27%34%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Gillingham39%
×Draw27%
Shrewsbury34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.29
Shrewsbury
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.38
Shrewsbury
0.74

allows per match

Gillingham
1.66
Shrewsbury
1.21

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less
Shrewsbury-0.07on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
66%
Gillingham or Shrewsbury
73%
Draw or Shrewsbury
61%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
17%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
72%
Gillingham 2+ goals
37%
Gillingham 3+ goals
14%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
70%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
34%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
53%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.21 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Shrewsbury defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Shrewsbury attack 0.74 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gillingham scores more
39%
level
27%
Shrewsbury scores more
34%

Gillingham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Gillingham
Balanced
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
48%Possession43%
64%Pass accuracy59%
11.7Shots11.2
1.30xGBiggest gap0.89
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GillinghamShrewsbury

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Gillingham
6
Draws
2
Shrewsbury
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 50%
1–03–30–01–20–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Gillingham
WLWWL
Shrewsbury
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gillingham face Shrewsbury (League Two)

League Two returns with Gillingham hosting Shrewsbury. Match starts January 30, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gillingham host Shrewsbury at Priestfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.