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Gillingham vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
Preview
14:00
Salford City
Salford City
5/1/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 45Priestfield Stadium
Big match
41%
Salford City
model favours
35%24%41%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Gillingham35%
×Draw24%
Salford City41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.48
Salford City
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.38
Salford City
1.55

allows per match

Gillingham
1.66
Salford City
1.58

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less
Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
59%
Gillingham or Salford City
76%
Draw or Salford City
65%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
17%
Salford City wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
77%
Gillingham 2+ goals
43%
Gillingham 3+ goals
19%
Salford City 1+ goals
80%
Salford City 2+ goals
47%
Salford City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
47%
Salford City (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Salford City attack 1.55 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gillingham scores more
35%
level
24%
Salford City scores more
41%

Salford City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gillingham sit 17, Salford City 4 in the table
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Gillingham
Balanced
Salford City
Attack-heavy
48%Possession52%
64%Pass accuracy67%
11.7Shots12.9
1.30xGBiggest gap1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GillinghamSalford City

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

4
Gillingham
2
Draws
2
Salford City
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 38%
0–01–22–21–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Gillingham
WLWWL
City
WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gillingham host Salford City

May 1, 2027: Gillingham take on Salford City in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gillingham host Salford City at Priestfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.