Gillingham 0–3 Salford City: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Salford City

C. Hendry 75'

R. Watson 61'

T. Vassell 54'

12/3/2022

League Two · Round 20MEMS Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Gillingham35%

×Draw24%

Salford City41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.60

Gillingham

1.48

Salford City

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.38

creates per match

1.55

1.66

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Gillingham

1.38

Salford City

1.55

allows per match

Gillingham

1.66

Salford City

1.58

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less

Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

59%

Gillingham or Salford City

76%

Draw or Salford City

65%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

17%

Salford City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

77%

Gillingham 2+ goals

43%

Gillingham 3+ goals

19%

Salford City 1+ goals

80%

Salford City 2+ goals

47%

Salford City 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

47%

Salford City (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Salford City attack 1.55 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gillingham scores more

35%

level

24%

Salford City scores more

41%

Salford City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

T. Vassell

Salford City · D

8.3

Match Events

53'

Ben Reeves

54'

T. Vassell↳ E. Watt

58'

L. Walker← M. Mandron

59'

A. MacDonald← B. Reeves

60'

E. Baggott← R. McKenzie

61'

R. Watson↳ L. Bolton

66'

C. McAleny← O. Bailey

66'

E. Galbraith← L. Tolaj

75'

C. Hendry↳ E. Galbraith

78'

H. Adelakun← S. Kashket

83'

S. O'Keefe← E. Baggott

88'

R. Leak← R. Nartey

88'

J. Jenkins← C. Hendry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamSalford

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots13

7Corners2

8Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots13

3On Target5

7Off Target4

2Blocked4

5Inside Box5

7Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

325Total Passes404

219Accurate Passes298

67%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0